World Economy · Iraq · Maritime Strategy

A Future Vision for the Grand Faw Port Project and Its Economic and Political Implications in Iraq

A strategic mega-port on the Faw Peninsula, conceived to link East and West, diversify national income, and reposition Iraq as a regional and global logistics hub — examined through three future scenarios.

Wissal Abdullah Hussein · Rawaa Talib Dawood

University of Baghdad, Iraq — Academy Review, 2026, № 2 (65)

Begin the briefing → The channel crisis

DOI 10.32342/3041-2137-2026-2-65-16 JEL R11 · R12 · R41 · F14 · F15 · L91 · O18

00 Overview

Why a port becomes a question of geopolitics

Mega-maritime projects are among countries' most prominent tools for enhancing economic capabilities and achieving regional and international integration. The Grand Faw Port stands out as a strategic initiative whose dimensions extend well beyond economics into politics and geopolitics.

Since its announcement, the project has attracted wide interest for its potential to change the balance of trade in the region by linking the Arabian Gulf to Europe via Iraqi territory — a shift that could restore Iraq's pivotal role in regional and international trade. Yet regional political considerations, competition over ports and shipping lanes, financing and infrastructure challenges, and internal Iraqi dynamics are all intertwined. The research therefore relies on an analytical-forecasting approach, reviewing the relevant literature and analysing the economic and political indicators tied to the project in order to draw future scenarios for the port.

Research problem

Iraq faces numerous challenges in implementing the port — strengthening the national economy, attracting investment, and balancing political and economic relations with neighbours — alongside questions about its preparedness for regional competition and the logistical and security risks that could affect success.

Importance of the research

It provides a comprehensive vision of the project and its role in promoting economic growth and political stability in Iraq, shedding light on the opportunities and challenges of implementation that may help decision-makers formulate effective policies.

Research objectives

Study the expected impact of the port on the Iraqi economy and on sustainable development.

Analyse the project's role in strengthening Iraq's position as a global logistics hub.

Discuss the challenges facing implementation and propose appropriate solutions.

Research hypothesis

The Grand Faw Port project represents a strategic opportunity for Iraq to strengthen its economy and achieve logistical independence — but its success depends on overcoming the financial, logistical, and political challenges it faces.

01 Location & Economic Importance

One coastline, a single gateway to the sea

Iraq holds a single seaport on the Arabian Gulf, roughly 60 kilometres long. Its existing maritime outlet rests on four ports — and the case for a fifth, far larger one.

Iraq's existing maritime outlet

Umm Qasr Port

Khor Abdullah Canal

Khor al-Zubair Port

Khor Abdullah Canal

Maqal Port

Shatt al-Arab

Abu Flus Port

Shatt al-Arab

The idea of the Grand Faw Port dates back to 1985, conceived as a strategic link between Iraq and Europe and Africa on one side, and East and South Asia on the other. By its strategic location at the southern end of the Khor Abdullah Canal, it is considered a potential alternative to the port of Hong Kong, opening prospects for global trade by reducing transit time between East and West.

Site selection

The port sits on the Faw Peninsula, south of Basra Governorate, in the Ras al-Bisha area at the end of the continental shelf overlooking the Arabian Gulf. The current site was chosen after comparison with eight other proposed locations, weighed on cost, safety, proximity to the coast, lack of silt deposits, and avoiding interference with oil pipelines.

Its cost is estimated at about 1,880 million euros, with capacity for up to 2 million containers per year, according to a study by the Italian company Technetel approved by the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers in 2009. Iraq's Ministry of Transport signed the design contract with the company in 2010.

~60km

Iraq's Gulf coastline

54km²

Estimated port area

19.8m

Depth for giant ships

1985

Year the idea emerged

02 Economic Opportunities

What the port could return to Iraq

Operating at full capacity, the project would diversify income, create jobs, and strengthen Iraq's transportation and international-trade sector. Its economic benefits cluster into four lines.

BENEFIT — TRADE

Promoting regional & international trade

By linking Asia and Europe, the port can become a vital trade corridor — cutting reliance on long sea routes via the Suez Canal through lower shipping costs and faster cargo transport, and enhancing Iraq's economic independence and commercial revenues.

BENEFIT — JOBS

A better work environment & diverse jobs

Thousands of direct and indirect jobs are expected across construction, operations, and supporting sectors such as transport and logistics, with related industries — warehouses and free zones — improving the business environment and lifting investment.

BENEFIT — BALANCE

Improving the trade balance

Freight, storage, and logistics fees would provide significant financial resources, while lower transport costs and better access to global markets raise the competitiveness of Iraqi products.

BENEFIT — INVESTMENT

Promoting foreign investment

The port is an opportunity to attract foreign investment across sectors such as manufacturing and logistics; modern infrastructure improves the investment environment and supports long-term development plans.

03 The Mubarak Al-Kabeer Challenge

Three ports, one narrow channel

Perhaps the most significant challenge facing the project is the construction of Kuwait's Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port on Bubiyan Island — launched in 2011, a year after Iraq announced the Grand Faw Port — directly opposite, inside the same narrow shipping lane.

Khor Abdullah — a crowded passage

Grand Faw · Umm Qasr · Mubarak Al-Kabeer

Grand Faw Port (Iraq, planned) Umm Qasr Port (Iraq, existing) Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port (Kuwait, 2011)

Kuwait holds the right to establish maritime projects on its coasts, but it set the port's foundations roughly three kilometres from Iraqi ports, inside the narrow shipping lane rather than further onto Bubiyan Island. Iraqi navigation experts regard this as a violation of international agreements for two reasons:

Reason 01

The project cuts off a significant amount of water from Umm Qasr Port, dropping its water level — an indication that Kuwait could restrict maritime navigation to the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr.

Reason 02

Kuwait would also confiscate what is known as the land navigation route, which is presumably open to all countries.

Deep waters of Khor Abdullah

Share within administrative borders

Per UN Security Council Resolution 833 (1993), the boundary ends at Bubiyan Island, leaving roughly 95% of the deep waters within Kuwait's borders — on condition the arrangement does not harm the economic reality agreed by both states.

A member of the International Arab Maritime Organization, Yassin Abdul-Ilah, warned that Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port would deprive the Grand Faw Port of its economic value, since ships would refrain from entering the depths of the Khor Abdullah Canal once about 95% of the water bodies sit within Kuwaiti administrative borders.

The result is a passage crowded by three seaports — Grand Faw, Umm Qasr, and Mubarak Al-Kabeer — where shallow waters and low water levels could leave Iraqi ports unable to receive sea vessels, directly affecting the Iraqi economy.

04 The Method of Futures Studies

Reading the future before it arrives

Futures studies seek to predict the future by anticipating developments from current data. Highly successful in the natural sciences, the field meets difficulty in the behavioural sciences, where human behaviour resists prediction — yet it has moved from scientific luxury to strategic necessity since the Cold War.

Global spending on futures studies

Developed vs developing countries

Developed countries account for about 97% of global spending on futures studies, against roughly 3% by developing countries.

Time horizons of the future

University of Minnesota futures division (years ahead)

The research adopts the intermediate future (5–20 years) as the most appropriate horizon: the near future is too short for meaningful change, while the distant future cannot be tracked accurately with the available tools.

Dr. Mazen Ismail Al-Ramadani frames the future as the cumulative result of the events and processes of change observed in society or occurring within it. Within the chosen intermediate horizon, the research advances three scenarios — decline, continuation, and progress.

05 Three Scenarios

Decline, continuation, progress

Each scenario reads the same project through a different balance of internal reform, regional diplomacy, and external pressure — and points to a different future for the Iraqi economy and its politics.

Scenario A

Decline

Pressures that erode the project

Complex internal conditions and political conflicts obstruct a unified, long-term strategy.
Administrative and financial corruption stands against the financing of major projects.
Regional competition from Kuwait's Mubarak Port — by one estimate, the Grand Faw Port could lose about 60% of its economic value.
Tension with the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, sharpened by parties supporting Iranian influence.
The Development Road rivals the Suez Canal — Egypt did not attend Iraq's cooperation conference.
Environmental and climatic strain: water shortages, rising temperatures, desertification.

Scenario B

Continuation

Stimulating supportive factors

Pursuing security stability to encourage investment and open the doors to global trade.
About 100,000 job opportunities on completion of the first phase by 2028.
Diplomatic, mutually beneficial agreements with the Gulf states — strengthening Iraq–Kuwait relations and joint seaport management.
Global partnerships with specialised industrial companies to curb corruption.
Advancing education and technology to build a skilled, forward-looking generation.

Scenario C

Progress

Development through reform

Radical reform across education, health, economy, and good governance, with economic diversification.
New ports to relieve pressure on existing ones, aided by improvement in the oil sector.
The Iraq Silk Road / Development Road linking Asia and Europe via Turkey to the Mediterranean.
A giant port to compete regionally and help delimit maritime boundaries with Iran and Kuwait.
Improving the coastline and halting coastal erosion to anchor major development projects.

A project timeline

1985

The idea is born

The concept of the Grand Faw Port emerges as a strategic link between Iraq, Europe and Africa, and East and South Asia.

1993

UN Resolution 833

Iraq and Kuwait regulate maritime navigation under UN Security Council Resolution 833, ending the boundary at Bubiyan Island.

2009

Feasibility approved

The Technetel study — cost ≈ €1,880 million, capacity ≈ 2 million containers/year — is approved by the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers.

2010

Iraq commits

Iraq announces the project and the Ministry of Transport signs a design contract with the Italian company.

2011

Kuwait responds

Kuwait launches the Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port on Bubiyan Island, directly opposite, within the same narrow lane.

2028

First phase target

Completion of the first phase is expected to deliver about 100,000 job opportunities and advance the Iraqi economy.

06 The Development Road

The corridor the port is built for

Described as a strategic project connecting Asia and Europe, the Iraq Silk Road / Development Road ties the maritime side — Iraq to the Mediterranean via Turkey — to a land route through more than ten Iraqi governorates to Fishkhabur port at the Turkish border.

0 km

Land road length

0 km

Electric railway line

10+

Iraqi governorates crossed

$0B

Est. annual goods revenue

Transit time, halved

Days between the Gulf, Asia and Europe

Completion would cut average transit time for goods from 30 days to only 15 days, serving the Iraqi economy and lifting investment.

Projected annual revenue

Development Road estimates (US$ millions)

Estimated revenues of about $4 billion annually from the transport of goods and $850 million annually from passengers.

The route promises a major investment opportunity to rehabilitate transport, road and electricity infrastructure, build an integrated industrial city, and establish train stations for goods and passengers — diversifying income sources and reducing Iraq's dependence on oil.

07 Conclusion

A strategic opportunity, conditional on will

The Development Road Project represents a significant strategic opportunity to advance the Iraqi economy and achieve sustainable development across sectors. By leveraging Iraq's geographical location as a vital trade corridor between East and West, the project can strengthen regional and international partnerships, stimulate investment, improve infrastructure, and provide jobs for Iraqi citizens.

🏛 Political will

Given security issues, internal conflicts and corruption, success requires strong political will and transparent administrative policies.

🎓 Skills & education

Effective investment in education and skills training is needed to keep pace with global technological developments in Iraq.

🌱 Sustainability

A focus on environmental sustainability, human-resource development and innovation can make the project a pillar of long-term growth.

🤝 Collaboration

A comprehensive approach rests on collaboration between government, the private sector, and academic institutions.

A vital step toward regional economic integration

Despite numerous challenges, the project can balance Iraq's regions, reduce economic and social disparities, and enhance the country's standing on the international stage — serving the well-being of Iraqi citizens.

08 References

Sources

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